Representing Model Uncertainty in Multiannual Predictions

The most prominent way to account for model uncertainty is through the pragmatic combination of simulations from individual climate models into a multimodel ensemble (MME). However, alternative approaches represent intrinsic errors within single-model ensembles (SMEs) using stochastic parameterizations have proven beneficial in numerical weather prediction. Nevertheless, are not included current decadal prediction systems. Here, effect stochastically perturbed physical tendency (SPPT) scheme examined 28-month predictions ECMWF's forecast and contrasted with MME constructed Compared SMEs, SPPT improves skill reliability tropical sea surface temperature forecasts during first 18 months (similar MME). Thus, schemes can be an effective low-cost used separately or conjunction improve on multiannual time scales.